Indonesia’s Dry Season Expands, Heavy Rain Unlikely Through June 22

Indonesia’s Dry Season Expands, Heavy Rain Unlikely Through June 22

Indonesia s Dry Season Expands Heavy – According to Tempo.CO, Jakarta, the dry season is expected to spread across more regions by the third ten-day period of June 2026. The Meteorology, Climatology, and Geophysics Agency (BMKG) reported that rainfall will remain below average in most parts of Kalimantan, Sulawesi, Maluku, North Maluku, and Papua. This projection comes from the Indonesian Rain Potential Period spanning June 16 to 22.

El Niño Conditions Drive Drought Expansion

BMKG attributed the growing dry regions to ongoing El Niño conditions. “Such conditions support the reduction of rainfall potential in several areas of Indonesia,” the agency noted. As mid-June approaches, monitoring data shows a rise in dry atmospheric patterns, particularly in the southern parts of the country.

Regional Rainfall Patterns Shift

The rainy season in Java, Bali, and Nusa Tenggara has transitioned into medium to long durations, lasting 11-20 days or 31-60 days. BMKG highlighted that 33.3 percent of Indonesia’s Seasonal Zone area—233 out of 700 zones—is now in the dry season. “This needs attention, especially in regions vulnerable to meteorological drought, decreased water availability, and increased potential for hotter daytime temperatures and colder temperatures at night to morning,” they added.

“This value has accelerated from the previous week’s 0.6 degrees,” said the Professor in the field of expertise in climate and extreme weather research, through an authorized social media account.

From June 16 to 18, areas like Aceh, North Sumatra, Central Kalimantan, West Sulawesi, and North Maluku remain under early warnings for heavy to very heavy rainfall. However, BMKG indicated no regions are forecast to experience intense rain during June 19-22.

Research Highlights Pacific Warming Trends

Erma Yulihastin, a researcher at the National Research and Innovation Agency’s (BRIN) Center for Climate and Atmosphere, noted that the Pacific Ocean is rapidly warming, signaling an El Niño event. She explained that sea surface temperature anomalies in the eastern equatorial Pacific reached 0.9 degrees Celsius above normal at the start of the week. This increase follows a rise of +0.8 degrees Celsius in the first week of June.

“The 2026 El Nino has a pattern of extreme heat propagation in the subsurface, similar to the 1997 El Nino, and a spatial structure similar to 2015,” she said.

Erma’s modeling, developed by BRIN, suggests a strong El Niño is anticipated next month, with peak drought conditions likely in August-September. Globally, climate models predict El Niño could become super strong this year, with sea surface temperature anomalies exceeding +2 degrees Celsius. Read: BMKG Reports 39% of West Java Experiencing Drought Click here to get the latest news updates from Tempo on Google News.