Fact Check: Does Indonesia Really Control Global Rice Prices?

Fact Check: Does Indonesia Really Control Global Rice Prices?

Fact Check – In Jakarta, Tempo.CO reports that a viral Instagram video, shared across Facebook, TikTok, and Threads, asserts Indonesia holds the power to dictate global rice prices. The video suggests that Indonesia’s decision to suspend rice imports beginning in 2025 sparked frustration among exporters like Vietnam and Thailand, resulting in a decline in worldwide rice costs.

Claim Analysis

The video presents a narrative: “We were once considered slaves, now we control global prices.” But does this align with reality? Tempo.CO investigated the claim by cross-referencing it with reliable data and consulting economic specialists.

Global Rice Trade Dynamics

Findings reveal that Indonesia’s rice import suspension policy has not significantly influenced global prices. According to Reuters, rice prices fell after India resumed exporting grains, including rice, in April 2025. This followed restrictions imposed in 2022, and the price drop was mirrored in Thailand and Vietnam.

US Department of Agriculture data further highlights Indonesia’s limited role in the global rice market. While India, China, Bangladesh, and Indonesia are the top producers, Indonesia ranks fourth with production far lower than its counterparts. During the 2024–2025 harvest, Indonesia generated 34.1 million tons of rice, compared to India’s 150.2 million tons and China’s 145.3 million tons.

Since 2011, the international rice market has been led by India, Thailand, and Vietnam. Indonesia briefly became the largest rice importer in 2023, with 3.06 million tons imported, but this position did not persist into subsequent years.

Expert Insight

“Indonesia’s selective imports in 2025, such as industrial broken rice and basmati varieties, were part of targeted domestic needs,” said Adhitya Wardhono, an economics lecturer at the University of Jember’s Faculty of Economics and Business (FEB UNEJ). “The price decline was driven by increased global supply, not by Indonesia’s policies.”

Adhitya emphasized that broader factors, like India’s export resumption and reduced demand from other nations, played a critical role in shaping rice prices. He noted that the 2023–2024 price spike was linked to El Niño concerns and India’s earlier export limits. Once India reopened its markets, Thai 5% broken rice prices dropped from around $632 per ton in early 2024 to $617 per ton by mid-2024.

Conclusion

Tempo.CO’s investigation concludes that the idea of Indonesia controlling global rice prices is misleading. While the country has made strides in its agricultural policies, its impact on international markets remains secondary to the actions of larger producers and traders.